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2020-03-22

Coronavirus

The Coronavirus outbreak should be taken for what it is, an outbreak that deserves our attention and precautionary measures, but not panic.

Notes:

Most important: stay safe, exercise the precautions being given by your government, maintain social distancing, help your neighbors, pray, etc.
Don’t panic or panic buy
Avoid any news source or person who uses words like “apocalyptic”
The information in this page will focus mainly on comparisons to the United States

A web search similar to “[your country] coronavirus trajectory” will reveal news articles and charts that make it seem the world is coming to an end. Here is an example chart used by many news outlets showing total number of infections and deaths, over time, since day zero (100 total infections).0481216202428323640444852566020000020000040000040000060000060000080000080000010000001000000ChinaChinaItalyItalyTurkeyTurkeyUKUKUSAUSASpainSpainSouth KoreaSouth KoreaDay N since 100 total infectionsTotal infections

Day-N	China	Italy	Turkey	UK	USA	Spain	South Korea
0	216	132	98	115	103	114	80
1	235	229	191	163	125	151	155
2	386	322	359	206	159	200	345
3	526	400	670	273	233	261	601
4	623	650	947	321	338	374	762
5	882	888	1,236	373	433	430	892
6	1,323	1,128	1,529	456	554	589	1,146
7	1,988	1,689	1,872	590	754	1,204	1,595
8	2,775	1,835	2,433	707	1,025	1,639	2,022
9	4,528	2,502	3,629	1,140	1,312	2,140	2,931
10	5,994	3,089	5,698	1,391	1,663	3,004	3,526
11	7,734	3,858	7,402	1,543	2,174	4,231	4,212
12	9,714	4,636	9,217	1,950	2,951	5,753	4,812
13	11,809	5,883	10,827	2,630	3,774	7,753	5,328
14	14,399	7,375	13,531	3,277	4,661	9,191	5,766
15	17,211	9,172	15,679	3,983	6,427	11,178	6,284
16	20,448	10,149	18,135	5,018	9,415	13,716	6,767
17	24,320	12,462	20,921	5,683	14,250	17,147	7,134
18	28,047	15,113	23,934	6,650	19,624	19,980	7,382
19	31,207	17,660	27,069	8,077	26,747	24,926	7,513
20	34,625	17,750	30,217	9,529	35,206	28,572	7,755
21	37,232	23,980	34,109	11,658	46,442	33,089	7,869
22	40,206	27,980	38,226	14,543	55,231	39,673	7,979
23	42,696	31,506	42,282	17,089	69,194	47,610	8,086
24	44,724	35,713	47,029	19,522	85,991	56,188	8,162
25	59,865	41,035	52,167	22,141	104,686	64,059	8,236
26	64,021	47,021	56,956	25,150	124,665	72,248	8,320
27	66,559	53,578	61,049	29,474	143,025	78,797	8,413
28	68,566	59,138	65,111	33,718	164,620	85,195	8,565
29	70,618	63,936	69,392	38,168	189,618	94,417	8,652
30	72,508	69,185	74,193	41,903	216,721	102,136	8,799
31	74,258	74,395	78,546	47,806	245,540	110,238	8,897
32	74,652	80,548	82,329	51,608	277,965	117,710	8,961
33	75,543	86,507	86,306	55,242	312,237	124,736	9,037
34	76,369	92,481	90,980	60,733	337,635	130,759	9,137
35	77,016	97,698	95,591	65,077	368,196	135,032	9,241
36	77,234	101,748	98,674	70,272	398,809	140,510	9,332
37	77,749	105,801	101,790	78,991	432,132	146,690	9,478
38	78,159	110,583	104,912	84,279	466,033	152,446	9,583
39	78,598	115,251	107,773	88,621	501,560	157,022	9,661
40	78,927	119,836	110,130	93,873	529,951	161,852	9,786
41	79,355	124,641	112,261	98,476	557,571	166,019	9,881
42	79,929	128,957	114,653	103,093	582,594	169,496	10,071
43	80,134	132,556	117,589	108,692	609,516	177,464	10,157
44	80,261	135,595	120,204	114,217	639,664	181,504	10,251
45	80,380	139,431		120,067	671,331	185,904	10,332
46	80,497	143,635		124,743	702,164	190,008	10,379
47	80,667	147,586		129,044	735,086	192,730	10,426
48	80,768	152,280		133,495	759,687	195,315	10,479
49	80,814	156,372		138,078	787,752	198,667	10,518
50	80,859	159,525		143,464	825,041	201,294	10,557
51	80,879	162,497		148,377	842,629	204,346	10,584
52	80,908	165,164		152,840	869,172	207,113	10,646
53	80,932	168,950		157,149	890,524	210,057	10,671
54	80,954	172,443		161,145	939,053	211,786	10,698
55	80,973	175,934		165,221	965,910	213,617	10,725
56	80,995	178,981		171,253	988,451	214,925	10,747
57	81,020	181,237			1,012,583	217,069	10,769
58	81,063	183,966			1,039,909	217,587	10,787
59	81,086	187,336			1,069,826		10,795
60	81,130	189,982					10,808
61	81,229	193,003					10,817
62	81,281						10,828

Chart by Visualizer

04812162024283236404448525660100001000020000200003000030000400004000050000500006000060000ChinaChinaItalyItalyTurkeyTurkeyUKUKUSAUSASpainSpainSouth KoreaSouth KoreaDay N since 100 total infectionsTotal deaths

Day-N	China	Italy	Turkey	UK	USA	Spain	South Korea
0	1	0	0	1	4	0	0
1	1	4	1	1	7	0	1
2	4	9	4	2	9	1	2
3	15	10	9	3	10	3	5
4	15	15	21	5	12	5	7
5	24	19	30	6	15		8
6	39	27	37	6	19	5	11
7	54	33	44	10	24	28	12
8	79	50	59	10	26	35	13
9	104	78	75	21	28	47	16
10	130	105	92	35	38	84	17
11	168	146	108	55	45	121	22
12	211	195	131	60	55	136	28
13	257	231	168	103	67	288	32
14	302	364	214	144	83	309	35
15	359	462	277	177	106	491	42
16	424	629	356	233	148	598	44
17	490	825	425	281	148	767	50
18	562	1,014	501	335	258	1,002	51
19	635	1,266	574	422	338	1,326	54
20	721	1,439	649	463	469	1,720	60
21	810	1,809	725	578	588	2,182	66
22	907	2,156	812	759	799	2,696	67
23	1,015	2,503	908	1,019	1,048	3,434	72
24	1,112	2,976	1,006	1,228	1,294	4,089	75
25	1,366	3,405	1,101	1,408	1,705	4,858	75
26	1,379	4,030	1,198	1,789	2,189	5,690	81
27	1,522	4,825	1,296	2,532	2,507	6,528	86
28	1,664	5,474	1,403	2,921	3,168	7,340	91
29	1,769	6,075	1,518	3,605	4,077	8,189	100
30	1,867	6,818	1,643	4,313	5,136	9,053	103
31	2,006	7,503	1,769	4,934	6,051	10,003	104
32	2,118	8,163	1,890	5,373	7,155	10,935	113
33	2,236	9,134	2,017	6,159	8,499	11,744	120
34	2,345	10,021	2,140	7,097	9,645	12,418	126
35	2,443	10,779	2,259	7,978	10,987	13,055	131
36	2,593	11,589	2,376	8,958	12,893	13,798	139
37	2,663	12,428	2,491	9,875	14,815	14,555	144
38	2,715	13,155	2,600	10,612	16,688	15,238	152
39	2,744	13,915	2,706	11,329	18,775	15,843	158
40	2,788	14,679	2,805	12,107	20,606	16,353	163
41	2,835	15,360	2,900	12,868	22,106	16,972	168
42	2,870	15,887	2,992	13,729	23,647	17,489	174
43	2,912	16,523	3,081	14,576	26,055	18,276	179
44	2,944	17,127	3,174	15,464	30,983	18,893	182
45	2,981	17,667		16,060	33,282	19,478	188
46	3,012	18,279		16,509	37,052	20,043	191
47	3,042	18,849		17,337	38,908	20,453	197
48	3,070	19,468		18,100	40,680	20,852	205
49	3,097	19,899		18,738	42,537	21,282	209
50	3,120	20,463		19,743	45,061	21,717	213
51	3,137	21,067		20,586	46,782	22,157	217
52	3,159	21,645		21,006	49,961	22,524	223
53	3,170	22,170		21,344	51,015	22,902	226
54	3,177	22,745		22,253	53,187	23,190	231
55	3,192	23,225		23,048	54,874	23,191	234
56	3,201	23,658		23,722	56,243	23,192	238
57	3,214	24,112			58,353	23,645	239
58	3,223	24,646			60,964	23,913	241
59	3,239	25,083			63,004		243
60	3,247	25,547					245
61	3,251	25,967					246
62	3,257						247

Chart by Visualizer

Raw data source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide

Along with a chart like this, the headline and article will use a words like “apocalyptic” and phrases like “X is going to get all of us killed”.

Let’s look at a chart showing the same data, but displayed as a percentage of infections and deaths, as opposed to total infections and deaths, in those countries.04812162024283236404448525660.10%.10%.20%.20%.30%.30%.40%.40%ChinaChinaItalyItalyTurkeyTurkeyUKUKUSAUSASpainSpainSouth KoreaSouth KoreaDay N since 100 total infections% of population - infected

Day-N	Italy	Turkey	UK	USA	Spain
0	0	0	0	0	0
1	0	0	0	0	0
2	0	0	0	0	0
3	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0
5	0	0	0	0	0
6	0	0	0	0	0
7	0	0	0	0	0
8	0	0	0	0	0
9	0	0	0	0	0
10	0	0	0	0	0
11	0	0	0	0	0
12	0	0	0	0	0
13	0	0	0	0	0
14	0	0	0	0	0
15	0	0	0	0	0
16	0	0	0	0	0
17	0	0	0	0	0
18	0	0	0	0	0
19	0	0	0	0	0.001
20	0	0	0	0	0.001
21	0	0	0	0	0.001
22	0	0	0	0	0.001
23	0.001	0.001	0	0	0.001
24	0.001	0.001	0	0	0.001
25	0.001	0.001	0	0	0.001
26	0.001	0.001	0	0	0.002
27	0.001	0.001	0	0	0.002
28	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.002
29	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.002
30	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.002
31	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.002
32	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.003
33	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.003
34	0.002	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.003
35	0.002	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.003
36	0.002	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.003
37	0.002	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.003
38	0.002	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.003
39	0.002	0.001	0.001	0.002	0.003
40	0.002	0.001	0.001	0.002	0.003
41	0.002	0.001	0.001	0.002	0.004
42	0.002	0.001	0.002	0.002	0.004
43	0.002	0.001	0.002	0.002	0.004
44	0.002	0.001	0.002	0.002	0.004
45	0.002		0.002	0.002	0.004
46	0.002		0.002	0.002	0.004
47	0.002		0.002	0.002	0.004
48	0.003		0.002	0.002	0.004
49	0.003		0.002	0.002	0.004
50	0.003		0.002	0.003	0.004
51	0.003		0.002	0.003	0.004
52	0.003		0.002	0.003	0.004
53	0.003		0.002	0.003	0.005
54	0.003		0.002	0.003	0.005
55	0.003		0.002	0.003	0.005
56	0.003		0.003	0.003	0.005
57	0.003			0.003	0.005
58	0.003			0.003	0.005
59	0.003			0.003
60	0.003
61	0.003
62

Chart by Visualizer

04812162024283236404448525660.0100%.0100%.0200%.0200%.0300%.0300%.0400%.0400%.0500%.0500%ChinaChinaItalyItalyTurkeyTurkeyUKUKUSAUSASpainSpainSouth KoreaSouth KoreaDay N since 100 total infections% of population - deaths

Day-N	Italy	Turkey	UK	USA	Spain
0	0	0	0	0	0
1	0	0	0	0	0
2	0	0	0	0	0
3	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0
5	0	0	0	0	0
6	0	0	0	0	0
7	0	0	0	0	0
8	0	0	0	0	0
9	0	0	0	0	0
10	0	0	0	0	0
11	0	0	0	0	0
12	0	0	0	0	0
13	0	0	0	0	0
14	0	0	0	0	0
15	0	0	0	0	0
16	0	0	0	0	0
17	0	0	0	0	0
18	0	0	0	0	0
19	0	0	0	0	0
20	0	0	0	0	0
21	0	0	0	0	0
22	0	0	0	0	0
23	0	0	0	0	0
24	0	0	0	0	0
25	0	0	0	0	0
26	0	0	0	0	0
27	0	0	0	0	0
28	0	0	0	0	0
29	0	0	0	0	0
30	0	0	0	0	0
31	0	0	0	0	0
32	0	0	0	0	0
33	0	0	0	0	0
34	0	0	0	0	0
35	0	0	0	0	0
36	0	0	0	0	0
37	0	0	0	0	0
38	0	0	0	0	0
39	0	0	0	0	0
40	0	0	0	0	0
41	0	0	0	0	0
42	0	0	0	0	0
43	0	0	0	0	0
44	0	0	0	0	0
45	0		0	0	0
46	0		0	0	0
47	0		0	0	0
48	0		0	0	0
49	0		0	0	0
50	0		0	0	0
51	0		0	0	0
52	0		0	0	0
53	0		0	0	0
54	0		0	0	0
55	0		0	0	0
56	0		0	0	0
57	0			0	0.001
58	0			0	0.001
59	0			0
60	0
61	0
62

Chart by Visualizer

Raw data source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide

Another interesting view of the data is number of new cases per day (as a percentage of population).04812162024283236404448525660.0025%.0025%.0050%.0050%.0075%.0075%.0100%.0100%.0125%.0125%.0150%.0150%.0175%.0175%ChinaChinaItalyItalyTurkeyTurkeyUKUKUSAUSASpainSpainSouth KoreaSouth KoreaDay N since 100 total infections% of population - newly infected

Day-N	Italy	Turkey	UK	USA	Spain
0	0	0	0	0	0
1	0	0	0	0	0
2	0	0	0	0	0
3	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0
5	0	0	0	0	0
6	0	0	0	0	0
7	0	0	0	0	0
8	0	0	0	0	0
9	0	0	0	0	0
10	0	0	0	0	0
11	0	0	0	0	0
12	0	0	0	0	0
13	0	0	0	0	0
14	0	0	0	0	0
15	0	0	0	0	0
16	0	0	0	0	0
17	0	0	0	0	0
18	0	0	0	0	0
19	0	0	0	0	0
20	0	0	0	0	0
21	0	0	0	0	0
22	0	0	0	0	0
23	0	0	0	0	0
24	0	0	0	0	0
25	0	0	0	0	0
26	0	0	0	0	0
27	0	0	0	0	0
28	0	0	0	0	0
29	0	0	0	0	0
30	0	0	0	0	0
31	0	0	0	0	0
32	0	0	0	0	0
33	0	0	0	0	0
34	0	0	0	0	0
35	0	0	0	0	0
36	0	0	0	0	0
37	0	0	0	0	0
38	0	0	0	0	0
39	0	0	0	0	0
40	0	0	0	0	0
41	0	0	0	0	0
42	0	0	0	0	0
43	0	0	0	0	0
44	0	0	0	0	0
45	0		0	0	0
46	0		0	0	0
47	0		0	0	0
48	0		0	0	0
49	0		0	0	0
50	0		0	0	0
51	0		0	0	0
52	0		0	0	0
53	0		0	0	0
54	0		0	0	0
55	0		0	0	0
56	0		0	0	0
57	0			0	0
58	0			0	0
59	0			0
60	0
61	0
62
63

Chart by Visualizer

Updates:

2020-03-23: death rate charts posted
2020-03-26: Corrected a computation error in the China data
2020-04-06: Added the “new cases per day” chart
Daily chart updates: 2020-03-23 – 2020-04-13
Chart updates every 3 days: 2020-04-13 – 2020-05-01
Last update, 01 May 2020, the day Texas reopened. This page will no longer be updated unless there is a significant change.

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Day-N	Italy	Turkey	UK	USA	Spain
0	0	0	0	0	0
1	0	0	0	0	0
2	0	0	0	0	0
3	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0
5	0	0	0	0	0
6	0	0	0	0	0
7	0	0	0	0	0
8	0	0	0	0	0
9	0	0	0	0	0
10	0	0	0	0	0
11	0	0	0	0	0
12	0	0	0	0	0
13	0	0	0	0	0
14	0	0	0	0	0
15	0	0	0	0	0
16	0	0	0	0	0
17	0	0	0	0	0
18	0	0	0	0	0
19	0	0	0	0	0
20	0	0	0	0	0
21	0	0	0	0	0
22	0	0	0	0	0
23	0	0	0	0	0
24	0	0	0	0	0
25	0	0	0	0	0
26	0	0	0	0	0
27	0	0	0	0	0
28	0	0	0	0	0
29	0	0	0	0	0
30	0	0	0	0	0
31	0	0	0	0	0
32	0	0	0	0	0
33	0	0	0	0	0
34	0	0	0	0	0
35	0	0	0	0	0
36	0	0	0	0	0
37	0	0	0	0	0
38	0	0	0	0	0
39	0	0	0	0	0
40	0	0	0	0	0
41	0	0	0	0	0
42	0	0	0	0	0
43	0	0	0	0	0
44	0	0	0	0	0
45	0		0	0	0
46	0		0	0	0
47	0		0	0	0
48	0		0	0	0
49	0		0	0	0
50	0		0	0	0
51	0		0	0	0
52	0		0	0	0
53	0		0	0	0
54	0		0	0	0
55	0		0	0	0
56	0		0	0	0
57	0			0	0
58	0			0	0
59	0			0
60	0
61	0
62
63

Day-N	Italy	Turkey	UK	USA	Spain
0	0	0	0	0	0
1	0	0	0	0	0
2	0	0	0	0	0
3	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0
5	0	0	0	0	0
6	0	0	0	0	0
7	0	0	0	0	0
8	0	0	0	0	0
9	0	0	0	0	0
10	0	0	0	0	0
11	0	0	0	0	0
12	0	0	0	0	0
13	0	0	0	0	0
14	0	0	0	0	0
15	0	0	0	0	0
16	0	0	0	0	0
17	0	0	0	0	0
18	0	0	0	0	0
19	0	0	0	0	0
20	0	0	0	0	0
21	0	0	0	0	0
22	0	0	0	0	0
23	0	0	0	0	0
24	0	0	0	0	0
25	0	0	0	0	0
26	0	0	0	0	0
27	0	0	0	0	0
28	0	0	0	0	0
29	0	0	0	0	0
30	0	0	0	0	0
31	0	0	0	0	0
32	0	0	0	0	0
33	0	0	0	0	0
34	0	0	0	0	0
35	0	0	0	0	0
36	0	0	0	0	0
37	0	0	0	0	0
38	0	0	0	0	0
39	0	0	0	0	0
40	0	0	0	0	0
41	0	0	0	0	0
42	0	0	0	0	0
43	0	0	0	0	0
44	0	0	0	0	0
45	0		0	0	0
46	0		0	0	0
47	0		0	0	0
48	0		0	0	0
49	0		0	0	0
50	0		0	0	0
51	0		0	0	0
52	0		0	0	0
53	0		0	0	0
54	0		0	0	0
55	0		0	0	0
56	0		0	0	0
57	0			0	0
58	0			0	0
59	0			0
60	0
61	0
62
63

Day-N	Italy	Turkey	UK	USA	Spain
0	0	0	0	0	0
1	0	0	0	0	0
2	0	0	0	0	0
3	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0
5	0	0	0	0	0
6	0	0	0	0	0
7	0	0	0	0	0
8	0	0	0	0	0
9	0	0	0	0	0
10	0	0	0	0	0
11	0	0	0	0	0
12	0	0	0	0	0
13	0	0	0	0	0
14	0	0	0	0	0
15	0	0	0	0	0
16	0	0	0	0	0
17	0	0	0	0	0
18	0	0	0	0	0
19	0	0	0	0	0
20	0	0	0	0	0
21	0	0	0	0	0
22	0	0	0	0	0
23	0	0	0	0	0
24	0	0	0	0	0
25	0	0	0	0	0
26	0	0	0	0	0
27	0	0	0	0	0
28	0	0	0	0	0
29	0	0	0	0	0
30	0	0	0	0	0
31	0	0	0	0	0
32	0	0	0	0	0
33	0	0	0	0	0
34	0	0	0	0	0
35	0	0	0	0	0
36	0	0	0	0	0
37	0	0	0	0	0
38	0	0	0	0	0
39	0	0	0	0	0
40	0	0	0	0	0
41	0	0	0	0	0
42	0	0	0	0	0
43	0	0	0	0	0
44	0	0	0	0	0
45	0		0	0	0
46	0		0	0	0
47	0		0	0	0
48	0		0	0	0
49	0		0	0	0
50	0		0	0	0
51	0		0	0	0
52	0		0	0	0
53	0		0	0	0
54	0		0	0	0
55	0		0	0	0
56	0		0	0	0
57	0			0	0
58	0			0	0
59	0			0
60	0
61	0
62
63